January 31, 2011
When Will We Sing?
When we have learnt that bleating doesn't work.
That's when.
My original post was exactly as you see above. Two lines. That said it all, I thought. Comments in my "Freemen of Egypt" post made I think a bit harder.
English Viking is asking "What happens after the revolution in Egypt?". A good question. The answer is "Whatever the Egyptians want to happen". The Egyptians are many things, but they are not stupid. They know that Egypt is not Iran II. Whilst most are Muslim, religious freedom is tolerated. Not always, but more than most other Muslim countries. The Coptic Christians are left (largely) in peace. They know that they control one of the most important waterways in the world. They know that their stance on Israel helps to maintain an uneasy peace. They know that they do not have oil & gas in the same quantities as the Big Three (Libya, Nigeria & Angola), and they know just how vital tourism is to their economy. They like a beer, and a smoke, so any hardline Islamist is going to get short shrift. I know many Egyptians and they want what I want: a peaceful life, a safe life for their families, some real job opportunities and a government that doesn't bleed them dry.
What is the difference between Mubaraks Egypt and Camerons UK?
Subtlety.
Mubarak steals from his people. So does Cameron. (Punishing tax demands, anyone?)
Mubarak steals land belonging to the people and sells it off cheap to his cronies. So does Cameron. (National Parks, anyone?)
Mubarak uses his Interior Ministry to spy on his people. Cameron uses GCHQ. (Emails retained, phone calls transcribed, anyone?)
Mubaraks police officers snatch, beat and kill their citizens. Camerons policy enforcement officers do exactly the same. (1,100 deaths in custody in nine years without a single conviction, anyone?)
Vote rigging, expense-fiddling, abuse of office, treason, spurious law making, rising gaol population, gravy-training.
I could go on.
Were there ramifications after the French Revolution? Sure. For the French aristocrats.
Were there ramifications after the Tunisian Revolution? Absolutely. For the thieving Ben Ali family.
Will there be ramifications after the Egyptian Revolution? No doubt about it. For Mubarak and his 40 thieves.
Will it affect the region. Definitely. But, what must be, must be. The Egyptians will decide.
I trust them to do the right thing. They know what they don't want.
And that, is a fine way to start.
CR.
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26 comments:
I'd like to believe that the Egyptians will decide for themselves instead of the Mubarak regime deciding for them and robbing them blind. But I can't help feeling that these riots are being assiduously steered by unseen forces to achieve another objective - which won't end up to the betterment of the Egyptian people...
If only the suggestion that the revolution by the Egyptians will in the end suit the Egyptians were true. Why are the most vociferous voices of the West meddling in the revolution? Clinton, Hague, Cameron etc, all backing calls for change. Another compliant puppet of big business/CIA/UK Foreign Office and all the vested interests they represent will be placed on the throne once Mubarak has been ousted. Its not a home grown Egyptian revolution at all but a deceitful trick by some elements of global finance/military corporates to make sure it is business as usual.
I agree with both of you.
There are always invisible strings.
I am hoping for the best and (quietly) preparing for the worst.
The best would be a safe and happy Egyptian population.
The worst could be a complete melt-down in the region.
Keep an eye on the Jordanians, and the Saudis. Their grumbling grows ever louder.
The fan has room for more shit yet.
CR.
They will just be swapping one US/IMF/World Bank backed regime for another US backed regime.
and they know just how vital tourism is to their economy
Unfortunately, the Islamic hardliners couldn't care less about this. Allah will provide.
It is possible there are forces behind the revolution that would take over a few months after the people secure their victory.
There are already such organizations in operation in that part of the world.
I found the following bit of alarming information on one of them - and their ties go further back in history to associations not that savory to consider being in charge of Egypt should they be the ones hoping to take reign once the revolution is complete.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2011/01/why_we_should_fear_the_moslem.html
Didn't post correctly.
http://www.americanthinker.com/
2011/01
/why_we_should_fear_the_moslem.html
I just left a similar comment at Guthrum's: I hate to be pessimistic but I'm inclined to wait and see what takes the place of the Tunisian and Egyptian governments. I don't assume that it will be authoritarian just because of Islam but Islamism (as distinct from Islam) is present in Egypt, right? Cap'n, you say this is not Iran II. I assume you mean you think it'll go the distance, but how sure are you that it won't be a repeat of Iran 1979? I'm not saying it's likely as I don't know either way, but I imagine it'd be the Muslim Brotherhood's wet dream to have it become an Islamic revolution that leaves them with control of the Suez Canal. Again, not saying they have much of a chance but since things can go a bit funny in power vacuums I'm inclined to hold off celebrating until we see what replaces Mubarak's regime. But if you feel like expanding still further...
Thanks Anon.
I'll check out the link.
CR.
AE,
My theory is based on what I see and hear from Egyptians. I was talking to a couple on the day it all kicked off and we explored some of the outcomes.
A hard-line regime did not feature. Apparently, most Egyptians have no stomach for that. There is a tiny minority who cannot think for themselves (just like in any society) but they are not perceived as a real threat.
Of course, I may be wrong. The guys I was talking to may have just been euphoric that the Revolution had begun, and that may have tainted their thoughts.
The talking heads on the tellybox will ALWAYS preach doom and gloom. So nothing new there.
I don't know if it will go the distance, they may be jumping out of the wotsit into the wossname, but they do not want more control. They want less.
I spose we'll just have to wait and see.
CR.
Wanting less control is a good sign, but I think I'll still wait for the dust to settle. I vaguely remember some fairly euphoric talk when the Soviets left the 'Stan before the Talitubis talked themselves into power. Ancient Buddhas and educating women? Talitubi bye bye!
Chemical Turing word: cation
Agreed. Waiting for the dust to settle is clever.
Mind you, I am over the moon that they said "Enough is enough!".
Even if it all fades to grey at least Unkie Hosni knows that his chattels is pissed off. Might make him try harder.
CR.
Snakey said "They will just be swapping one US/IMF/World Bank backed regime for another US backed regime"
There's a more solvent place to borrow these days. China.
Or India.
Both are buying huge chunks of Africa.
(In the north and sub-Sahara).
CR.
If they are lucky they might get Bangladesh rather than Iran, or so I hope.
im one of the naieve fools hoping against hope for real change rather than one state for another. i know this is unlikely to be a watershed in political authority on the scale of the fall of the USSR but every such point in history has the potential. could this be similar to siad biare in somalia?
all the libertarian/anarchist blogs are urging caution but take a look at this http://english.aljazeera.net/video/middleeast/2011/01/201113065521128905.html
yes on the face of it looks like a threatening mob but, at least according to this report, it is actually an armed neighbourhood watch - a voluntary provision of security. now its arguable whether the absence of police is a failure of the state or an intentional ploy but the result is the same - when left to their own devices - total freedom and total responsibility - the people are more than capable of filling the space left by state security. the group check the id of a car entering their community. how is this different to a professional security guard at a business park or country club, a private residential development or a private car park? it isnt.
this is just within the first few days. given time to develop this informal voluntary provision would become formalised with shifts, procedures etc. it may even be professionalised and opened up to competition.
i doubt very much that this tiny piece of my ridiculous anarchist dream will be allowed to survive for very long but this brief snapshot is the answer to just about every problem we consider.
also from reason blog - an article explaining how forces of the state may be infiltrating as agent provocateurs in order to justify repression
http://reason.com/blog/2011/01/30/looters-and-leviathan-hobbes-t
why would state police/military acts as looters?
1. It tars the insurgency as a group of criminals and thugs.
2. It provides a reason for a reluctant army to get involved and enact a curfew.
3. It forces a percentage of the movement to stay at home (to guard the neighborhood).
This above has the potential to set the stage for a harsh response domestically. It could also help provide cover to the regime globally (hitting the Egyptian Museum was smart in this respect, given how many people around the world care much more for the artifacts there than the freedom of 80 m Egyptians).
im still buzzing from that video - the when she says 'its the people that own the streets' dont you just want to make everyone know that? im no communist, in fact i believe all roads should be privately owned, but in our current circumstances we DO own the roads. we also own the police so who are they to keep us off our own roads? one of the american states was recently seriously examining a legal challenge to the state driving license as being unconstitutional because it represents a restriction upon the freedom of citizens to travel the public highway!
They know that they control one of the most important waterways in the world.
Yes that reminds me - can we have our ball back now please?
Hey CR,
I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree.
In what way did the Russian Rev. improve the lot of the average Ivan?
In what way is the Gov of France not one of the worst bunch of tax-fiddling, law breaking, inept, domineering bunch of traitors in Western Europe, with the possible exception of the UK?
No, I'm sorry. I can see a lot of blood spilling ahead. Economic collapse (if it could get any worse) and war with Israel.
BTW. You need to check on the 'religious freedom' thing. It was only New Year's day when a mad mullah bombed a church, injuring over 70 and killing more than 20. Train attacks are not unusual. Copts are treated like filth.
If by religious freedom you mean 'the muslims don't kill quite as many kuffars as in other Islamic hell-holes, yet, I think I could go with that.
I hope you are right.
Interesting post and comments Captain,
Whats sickens me is how Mubarak still clings to power and the hypocrisy of the western leaders who have for decades kissed his backside, sold him weapons and given him aid.
CR
Bliar was on Sky news yesterday trying to tell the Egyptians what he wanted to see as part of the Middle East Peace Process - What process? And who the fuck does mr war criminal think he is? U could not make it up he has Zero Authority - time he met the other end of a bang stick =}
CD
Thanks TLK.
Where you been!?
I have missed you, I have.
CR.
EV,
I have been listening avidly to the reports. The protestors have all been saying that they are united. I am hoping against hope that they will feel the same way when the new government is installed.
And those 'mad mullahs' are a rare beast. Folks on the ground, neighbours, friends, colleagues etc, have no problem with tolerance for other faiths. The MSM just like to harp on about it.
Shit-stirrers, that's all they are. They need those negative, gory headlines to peddle their nonsense.
CR.
cant believe the hypocrisy of the US attempting any influence over egyptians as we can all see the Abrams tanks rolling through cairo. they symbolise the US money that has caused this.
CR
It would be a great honour what what, more gin less beer!
Tootle pip!
CD
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